VPS 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host KuPS at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 July 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VPS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Lemonsoft Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KuPS stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VPS at 1.10 PPG versus KuPS's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for VPS, 4 for KuPS and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 2–0 with VPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
KuPS trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 72% and KuPS 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 67% | KuPS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 0.98 xG and KuPS 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.696 / defence 0.919 | KuPS attack 0.818 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.483. VPS's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 VPS games / 38 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 30% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37%. Fair-value odds: VPS 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | KuPS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KuPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 30% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 30% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG VPS 0.98 / KuPS 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.696 / def 0.919 | KuPS attack 0.818 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: KuPS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.11
KuPS xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs KuPS kick off?
VPS vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs KuPS?
VPS 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is VPS vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs KuPS part of?
VPS vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 30% chance of winning, KuPS a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both VPS and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
Record (7 meetings): VPS 3W | Draws 0 | KuPS 4W.
What form are VPS and KuPS in?
VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. KuPS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VPS's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
30%
3.29
32%
3.10
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
VPS xG
Total xG
2.09
1.11
KuPS xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are VPS and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for VPS and 1.11 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VPS's recent record stands at 16W 9D 18L from 43 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 9L across 43 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VPS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VPS have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 7W 8D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KuPS's season.
Goals in Recent Form
VPS are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.70 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and KuPS in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 16W 9D 18L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while KuPS have gone 26W 8D 9L in their last 43 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.30 PPG; KuPS away: 1.45 PPG.
Have VPS or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, KuPS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
VPS's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VPS
2
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 3, KuPS have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VPS and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when KuPS 3-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 60%, KuPS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VPS) and 50% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 30% of games; KuPS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of VPS's games and 60% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VPS's recent games and 50% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and KuPS tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, KuPS in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as VPS and KuPS drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 0.98 xG and KuPS 1.11 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.70 / defence 0.92 against KuPS attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 30% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 67%, KuPS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.