Mariehamn 1-5 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs VPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Mariehamn welcome VPS to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 June 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Mariehamn have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 1.10 (VPS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour VPS, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Mariehamn.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with VPS winning.
It is worth noting that VPS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
VPS in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 54% versus VPS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 57% | VPS 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.52 xG and VPS 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.995 / defence 1.289 | VPS attack 1.121 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.475. Data: 32 Mariehamn games / 31 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 21% | VPS 52%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.70 | Draw 4.76 | VPS 1.92. VPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 40% | VPS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 21% | VPS 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Mariehamn 1.52 / VPS 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.995 / def 1.289 | VPS attack 1.121 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: VPS (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
2.13
VPS xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs VPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs VPS kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn 1 - 5 VPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs VPS part of?
Mariehamn vs VPS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 27% chance of winning, VPS a 52% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Mariehamn and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
Record (5 meetings): Mariehamn 0W | Draws 2 | VPS 3W.
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. VPS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.99x the league average against VPS's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
27%
3.64
21%
4.80
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.65
2.13
VPS xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
12%
8.42
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
3%
30.66
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Mariehamn and 2.13 for VPS, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 13W 13D 30L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS's form line: 28W 9D 19L from 56 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, VPS are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L).
On the road, VPS have gone 15W 3D 9L from 27 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.54 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
VPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and VPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 13W 13D 30L in their last 56 games (0.93 PPG), while VPS have gone 28W 9D 19L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or VPS away?
VPS's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.07 PPG; VPS away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: VPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting VPS specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
3
Draws
6
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and VPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, VPS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and VPS?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 44%, VPS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mariehamn) and 59% (VPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VPS in 37%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play VPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 52% of VPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Mariehamn's matches and 59% of VPS's.
Do Mariehamn and VPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, VPS in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VPS run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Mariehamn 1-5 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.52 xG and VPS 2.13 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. VPS outscored their 2.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.99 / defence 1.29 against VPS attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 27% | Draw 21% | VPS 52%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 57%, VPS 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VPS (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.