Lahti 3-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lahti at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lahti face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lahti welcome Mariehamn to Lahden Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lahti have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lahti's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mariehamn stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mariehamn away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Lahti) versus 1.10 (Mariehamn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Lahti, 2 for Mariehamn and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Lahti 0–0 Mariehamn — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lahti trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Mariehamn trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lahti 48% versus Mariehamn 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lahti 48% | Mariehamn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lahti 1.29 xG and Mariehamn 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lahti attack 0.827 / defence 0.938 | Mariehamn attack 1.007 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.278. Data: built from Lahti's last 27 games and Mariehamn's last 27.
Result probabilities: Lahti 36% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 32%. Fair-value odds: Lahti 2.78 | Draw 3.10 | Mariehamn 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lahti at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lahti offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (Lahti's last 10 home games and Mariehamn's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lahti 70% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lahti vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 6 | Venue: Lahden Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lahti 36% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Lahti 1.29 / Mariehamn 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lahti attack 0.827 / def 0.938 | Mariehamn attack 1.007 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Lahti (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lahti xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mariehamn xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn FAQs
What time does Lahti vs Mariehamn kick off?
Lahti vs Mariehamn kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Lahden Stadion.
What was the final score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Lahti 3 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Lahti vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lahden Stadion.
What competition is Lahti vs Mariehamn part of?
Lahti vs Mariehamn is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 6) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Lahti a 36% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lahti the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lahti and Mariehamn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lahti vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lahti's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Lahti's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lahti's last 27 games and Mariehamn's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lahti Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.10
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lahti xG
Total xG
2.50
1.21
Mariehamn xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lahti and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lahti and 1.21 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lahti's recent record stands at 12W 14D 28L from 54 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 26L across 54 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lahti on 0.93 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lahti have managed 7W 5D 15L from their last 27 home games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lahti are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.31 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lahti
Blended
Mariehamn
Current Season
Lahti (Home) vs Mariehamn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lahti
Blended
Mariehamn
Current Season
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn Form FAQs
What form are Lahti and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Lahti have gone 12W 14D 28L in their last 54 games (0.93 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lahti at home or Mariehamn away?
Lahti's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lahti at home: 0.96 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 8 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Lahti have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won Mariehamn 6-0 Lahti.
Lahti's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lahti
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lahti have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lahti and Mariehamn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 September 2026: Lahti 2-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lahti 52%, Mariehamn 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lahti) and 52% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Lahti have failed to score in 41% of games; Mariehamn in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lahti home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lahti vs Mariehamn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lahti and Mariehamn matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lahti's games and 59% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lahti and Mariehamn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lahti's recent games and 52% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lahti and Mariehamn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Lahti's recent matches and 74% of Mariehamn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lahti run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lahti beat Mariehamn 3-0 at Lahden Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lahti 1.29 xG and Mariehamn 1.21 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lahti beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lahti attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Mariehamn attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lahti 36% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 32%, with Lahti to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lahti 48%, Mariehamn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lahti's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lahti 0.93 PPG, Mariehamn 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lahti win broke the near-deadlock. Lahti (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.