EIF 0-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this EIF vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Ilves travel to Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN to take on EIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects EIF 0.87 xG and Ilves 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: EIF attack 0.785 / defence 1.069 | Ilves attack 0.810 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.278. EIF's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ilves's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 EIF games / 27 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: EIF 26% | Draw 36% | Ilves 38%. Fair-value odds: EIF 3.85 | Draw 2.78 | Ilves 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: EIF vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: EIF 26% | Draw 36% | Ilves 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG EIF 0.87 / Ilves 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: EIF attack 0.785 / def 1.069 | Ilves attack 0.810 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Ilves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
EIF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ilves xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does EIF vs Ilves kick off?
EIF vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN.
What was the final score in EIF vs Ilves?
EIF 0 - 2 Ilves.
Where is EIF vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN.
What competition is EIF vs Ilves part of?
EIF vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win EIF vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives EIF a 26% chance of winning, Ilves a 38% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in EIF vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both EIF and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will EIF vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between EIF and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are EIF and Ilves in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ilves away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
EIF's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus EIF's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
26%
3.89
36%
2.76
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
EIF xG
Total xG
1.98
1.11
Ilves xG
3.89
26%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for EIF vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are EIF and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for EIF and 1.11 for Ilves, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for EIF vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
EIF
Pre-Season
Ilves
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between EIF and Ilves runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
EIF
0
Draws
2
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between EIF and Ilves?
From 2 meetings on record, EIF have won 0, Ilves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did EIF and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Ilves 5-0 EIF.
Who has won more matches between EIF and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = EIF home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over EIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat EIF 0-2 at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting EIF 0.87 xG and Ilves 1.11 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. EIF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ilves outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of EIF attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Ilves attack 0.81 / defence 0.75, drawn from 5/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it EIF 26% | Draw 36% | Ilves 38%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.