Kooteepee 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mariehamn at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kooteepee vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Mariehamn travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arto Tolsa Areena, Kooteepee have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mariehamn — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kooteepee register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mariehamn in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Mariehamn have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Kooteepee's 1 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Mariehamn winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mariehamn have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kooteepee 60% and Mariehamn 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kooteepee 80% | Mariehamn 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.58 xG and Mariehamn 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.735 / defence 1.236 | Mariehamn attack 0.800 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.653. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Kooteepee's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Kooteepee games / 44 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 36% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 39%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Mariehamn 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kooteepee 60% | Mariehamn 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 36% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Kooteepee 1.58 / Mariehamn 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.735 / def 1.236 | Mariehamn attack 0.800 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.653 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Mariehamn xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kick off?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Kooteepee 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn part of?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 36% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kooteepee and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Record (8 meetings): Kooteepee 1W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 5W.
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
36%
2.76
25%
3.96
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
3.21
1.63
Mariehamn xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
8%
12.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.63 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kooteepee's recent record stands at 4W 5D 16L from 25 games, a 0.68 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 11L across 25 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mariehamn by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kooteepee heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kooteepee have managed 1W 5D 6L from 12 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mariehamn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kooteepee are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.36 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.24 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Mariehamn in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 4W 5D 16L in their last 25 games (0.68 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Mariehamn away?
Mariehamn's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.67 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Mariehamn won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Kooteepee
3
Draws
5
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 1, Mariehamn have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Kooteepee 1-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 58%, Mariehamn 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kooteepee) and 50% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kooteepee have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Kooteepee's games and 67% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kooteepee's matches and 50% of Mariehamn's.
Do Kooteepee and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kooteepee and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arto Tolsa Areena, Relegation Round - 4, as Kooteepee and Mariehamn drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.58 xG and Mariehamn 1.63 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against Mariehamn attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 36% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 39%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 80%, Mariehamn 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mariehamn arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.