Kooteepee 2-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Mariehamn (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kooteepee face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Mariehamn travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 May 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Arto Tolsa Areena, Kooteepee have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Kooteepee are significantly better at Arto Tolsa Areena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mariehamn — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Mariehamn have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Kooteepee's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Mariehamn winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mariehamn have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 41% versus Mariehamn 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 44% | Mariehamn 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 0.89 xG and Mariehamn 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.594 / defence 1.267 | Mariehamn attack 0.742 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.495. Kooteepee's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Kooteepee games / 31 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 24% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 49%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Mariehamn 2.04. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kooteepee 40% | Mariehamn 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 24% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Kooteepee 0.89 / Mariehamn 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.594 / def 1.267 | Mariehamn attack 0.742 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Mariehamn xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kick off?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 31 May 2025 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Kooteepee 2 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn part of?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 24% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kooteepee and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Record (6 meetings): Kooteepee 1W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 4W.
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
24%
4.21
27%
3.68
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.29
1.41
Mariehamn xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
6%
17.17
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.2 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.41 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kooteepee's recent record stands at 5W 5D 17L from 27 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 15L across 27 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kooteepee on 0.74 PPG, Mariehamn on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kooteepee have managed 3W 3D 7L from 13 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 3W 1D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kooteepee are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.00 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 games (0.74 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Mariehamn away?
Kooteepee's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 0.92 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Mariehamn won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Kooteepee
3
Draws
5
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 1, Mariehamn have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Kooteepee 1-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 38%, Mariehamn 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kooteepee) and 69% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kooteepee keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kooteepee have failed to score in 46% of games; Mariehamn in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 54% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Kooteepee's matches and 69% of Mariehamn's.
Do Kooteepee and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kooteepee and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee and Mariehamn finished level at 2-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 0.89 xG and Mariehamn 1.41 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kooteepee beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.59 / defence 1.27 against Mariehamn attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 8/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 24% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 49%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 44%, Mariehamn 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kooteepee 0.74 PPG, Mariehamn 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.