FF Jaro 2-3 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FF Jaro vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FF Jaro and Mariehamn meet at Project Liv Arena in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FF Jaro's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FF Jaro have posted 2W 3D 5L at Project Liv Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mariehamn (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for FF Jaro, 1.00 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FF Jaro register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Mariehamn in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FF Jaro 1W, Mariehamn 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FF Jaro — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FF Jaro 58% versus Mariehamn 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FF Jaro 58% | Mariehamn 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.48 xG and Mariehamn 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.687 / defence 1.196 | Mariehamn attack 0.796 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.653. FF Jaro's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing FF Jaro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 FF Jaro games / 44 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 35% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 39%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Mariehamn 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FF Jaro 70% | Mariehamn 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 35% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG FF Jaro 1.48 / Mariehamn 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.687 / def 1.196 | Mariehamn attack 0.796 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.653 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Mariehamn xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs Mariehamn kick off?
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Project Liv Arena.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
FF Jaro 2 - 3 Mariehamn.
Where is FF Jaro vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs Mariehamn part of?
FF Jaro vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 35% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FF Jaro and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and Mariehamn?
Record (2 meetings): FF Jaro 1W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are FF Jaro and Mariehamn in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FF Jaro's attack at 0.69x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.80x) against FF Jaro's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
35%
2.86
26%
3.84
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
3.05
1.57
Mariehamn xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.57 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FF Jaro come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 4D 13L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for FF Jaro against 1.08 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FF Jaro's home form reads 2W 3D 7L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.19 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FF Jaro are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.15 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FF Jaro and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 9W 4D 13L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FF Jaro at home or Mariehamn away?
Mariehamn's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FF Jaro at home: 0.75 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FF Jaro won 3-0 on 23 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FF Jaro have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FF Jaro
1
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and Mariehamn?
From 5 meetings on record, FF Jaro have won 2, Mariehamn have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 FF Jaro.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FF Jaro see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FF Jaro, 67% for Mariehamn — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FF Jaro) and 50% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FF Jaro have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FF Jaro play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FF Jaro's games and 67% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FF Jaro vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FF Jaro's matches and 50% of Mariehamn's.
Do FF Jaro and Mariehamn tend to score early?
FF Jaro have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mariehamn edge out FF Jaro 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat FF Jaro 2-3 at Project Liv Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.48 xG and Mariehamn 1.57 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.69 / defence 1.20 against Mariehamn attack 0.80 / defence 1.29, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 35% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 39%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 58%, Mariehamn 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FF Jaro's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.19 PPG, Mariehamn 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. FF Jaro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.