West Ham 4-2 Brentford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates West Ham at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Brentford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Brentford travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 February 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Ham stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at London Stadium, West Ham have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Brentford have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brentford away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
West Ham are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Brentford, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for West Ham.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–3 with Brentford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Brentford have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
West Ham trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brentford trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 49% versus Brentford 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 49% | Brentford 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.28 xG and Brentford 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.846 / defence 1.017 | Brentford attack 0.805 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.552. Data: 63 West Ham games / 63 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 36% | Draw 28% | Brentford 36%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Brentford 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Brentford lead the H2H ledger, but West Ham carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 40% | Brentford 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 36% | Draw 28% | Brentford 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG West Ham 1.28 / Brentford 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.846 / def 1.017 | Brentford attack 0.805 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.552 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Brentford xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Brentford kick off?
West Ham vs Brentford kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 February 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Brentford?
West Ham 4 - 2 Brentford.
Where is West Ham vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Brentford part of?
West Ham vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 36% chance of winning, Brentford a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both West Ham and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Brentford?
Record (5 meetings): West Ham 0W | Draws 0 | Brentford 5W.
What form are West Ham and Brentford in?
West Ham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Brentford (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
West Ham's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.56
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.55
1.27
Brentford xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are West Ham and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for West Ham and 1.27 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 21W 13D 29L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford's form line: 22W 18D 23L from 63 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.21 PPG, Brentford on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (13W 8D 10L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 8W 8D 15L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Brentford in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Brentford have gone 22W 18D 23L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Brentford away?
West Ham's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.52 PPG; Brentford away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brentford have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2026, when Brentford won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
West Ham
1
Draws
8
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Brentford?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 1, Brentford have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Brentford 3-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Brentford?
Brentford have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 48%, Brentford 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (West Ham) and 45% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Brentford in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of West Ham's recent matches and 45% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Ham vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of West Ham's recent games and 45% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Brentford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Brentford 4-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.28 xG and Brentford 1.27 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Brentford attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 36% | Draw 28% | Brentford 36%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 49%, Brentford 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.21 PPG, Brentford 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Brentford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.