Crystal Palace 3-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crystal Palace's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Selhurst Park this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burnley have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Crystal Palace against 0.60 for Burnley. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Crystal Palace register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Burnley in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Crystal Palace 1W, Burnley 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Crystal Palace winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Burnley — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 54% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 46% | Burnley 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.66 xG and Burnley 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.890 / defence 1.111 | Burnley attack 0.801 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.571. Data: 63 Crystal Palace games / 25 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 43% | Draw 25% | Burnley 32%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Burnley 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 70% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 43% | Draw 25% | Burnley 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Crystal Palace 1.66 / Burnley 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.890 / def 1.111 | Burnley attack 0.801 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.571 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Burnley xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Burnley kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Crystal Palace 3 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Burnley part of?
Crystal Palace vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 43% chance of winning, Burnley a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Crystal Palace and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Crystal Palace 1W | Draws 2 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Burnley in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crystal Palace's attack at 0.89x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.80x) against Crystal Palace's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
43%
2.33
25%
3.92
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
3.05
1.40
Burnley xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.40 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crystal Palace come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 19D 27L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.60 PPG from 63 outings (29W 14D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Crystal Palace's home form reads 10W 10D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.55 points per game from 31 outings (13W 9D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.56 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Burnley in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 17W 19D 27L in their last 63 games (1.11 PPG), while Burnley have gone 29W 14D 20L in their last 63 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.29 PPG; Burnley away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Burnley in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won 3-0 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Crystal Palace
2
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 3, Burnley have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Burnley?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 58%, Burnley 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Crystal Palace) and 52% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crystal Palace's games and 61% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 52% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Crystal Palace run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Burnley 3-0 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.66 xG and Burnley 1.40 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Crystal Palace beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burnley landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Burnley attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 43% | Draw 25% | Burnley 32%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 46%, Burnley 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Burnley's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Crystal Palace winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.