Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Newcastle at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Bournemouth travel to St. James' Park to take on Newcastle. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Newcastle have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle's home record at St. James' Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. James' Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Newcastle are significantly better at St. James' Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bournemouth are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Bournemouth and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Newcastle in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 54% versus Bournemouth 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 57% | Bournemouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 2.46 xG and Bournemouth 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.249 / defence 1.024 | Bournemouth attack 1.011 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.538. Data: 62 Newcastle games / 61 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 56% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Bournemouth 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bournemouth (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 40% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 56% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG Newcastle 2.46 / Bournemouth 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.249 / def 1.024 | Bournemouth attack 1.011 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Bournemouth xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Bournemouth kick off?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Newcastle 2 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Newcastle vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Bournemouth part of?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 56% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Newcastle and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Record (3 meetings): Newcastle 0W | Draws 2 | Bournemouth 1W.
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in?
Newcastle (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.25) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
56%
1.77
20%
5.06
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Newcastle xG
Total xG
4.05
1.59
Bournemouth xG
1.77
56%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
9%
11.72
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
2%
49.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.59 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Newcastle's recent record stands at 29W 17D 15L from 61 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 31L across 61 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Newcastle by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bournemouth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 18W 7D 5L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 9W 4D 17L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newcastle are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.11 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 29W 17D 15L in their last 61 games (1.70 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 18W 12D 31L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Bournemouth away?
Newcastle's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.03 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Newcastle and Bournemouth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when Bournemouth won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Newcastle
5
Draws
3
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 0, Bournemouth have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 47%, Bournemouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Newcastle) and 60% (Bournemouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bournemouth in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Newcastle's recent matches and 50% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Newcastle's matches and 60% of Bournemouth's.
Newcastle and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle and Bournemouth finished level at 2-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.46 xG and Bournemouth 1.59 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.25 / defence 1.02 against Bournemouth attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 56% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 24%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 57%, Bournemouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.