Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fulham face Aston Villa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Craven Cottage plays host to Fulham versus Aston Villa in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fulham's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Fulham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Aston Villa (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aston Villa away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Fulham, 1.70 for Aston Villa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Aston Villa edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Fulham 1–3 Aston Villa — a Aston Villa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 53% versus Aston Villa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 63% | Aston Villa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.62 xG and Aston Villa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.094 / defence 0.783 | Aston Villa attack 1.067 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.538. Fulham have a tight defence (rating 0.783), which is pulling Aston Villa's projected output down. Data: built from Fulham's last 62 games and Aston Villa's last 62.
Result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 30%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.24 | Draw 3.89 | Aston Villa 3.37. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Aston Villa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fulham 40% (last 10 home games) | Aston Villa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Fulham 1.62 / Aston Villa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.094 / def 0.783 | Aston Villa attack 1.067 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: Fulham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Aston Villa xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Aston Villa kick off?
Fulham vs Aston Villa kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Fulham 1 - 2 Aston Villa.
Where is Fulham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Aston Villa part of?
Fulham vs Aston Villa is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 45% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fulham and Aston Villa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.09x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (1.07x) against Fulham's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 62 games and Aston Villa's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.89
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.91
1.29
Aston Villa xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
6%
17.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fulham and 1.29 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Fulham have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 23W 12D 27L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Aston Villa's form line: 32W 11D 19L from 62 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Aston Villa are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fulham have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 31 home games (15W 6D 10L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 11W 8D 12L from their last 31 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aston Villa's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.63 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Aston Villa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 23W 12D 27L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 32W 11D 19L in their last 62 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Aston Villa away?
Fulham's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.65 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won Fulham 3-0 Aston Villa on 20 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Fulham
1
Draws
6
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 2, Aston Villa have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fulham and Aston Villa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Aston Villa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Fulham) and 48% (Aston Villa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games; Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Aston Villa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Aston Villa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fulham's recent matches and 52% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fulham and Aston Villa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fulham's matches and 48% of Aston Villa's.
Do Fulham and Aston Villa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Fulham's recent matches and 74% of Aston Villa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aston Villa defy the odds to beat Fulham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Fulham 1-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.62 xG and Aston Villa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Aston Villa attack 1.07 / defence 0.86, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 45% | Draw 26% | Aston Villa 30%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Aston Villa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 63%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Aston Villa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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