Leicester 0-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fulham (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Leicester face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power Stadium plays host to Leicester versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Leicester's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester at King Power Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fulham (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fulham arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Leicester have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fulham in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Fulham hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Fulham winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fulham have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 59% versus Fulham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 64% | Fulham 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 0.99 xG and Fulham 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.694 / defence 1.220 | Fulham attack 1.029 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.520. Leicester's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Leicester games / 59 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 17% | Draw 26% | Fulham 57%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Fulham 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 60% | Fulham 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 17% | Draw 26% | Fulham 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Leicester 0.99 / Fulham 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.694 / def 1.220 | Fulham attack 1.029 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: Fulham (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Fulham xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Fulham kick off?
Leicester vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Fulham?
Leicester 0 - 2 Fulham.
Where is Leicester vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Fulham part of?
Leicester vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 17% chance of winning, Fulham a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Leicester and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Fulham?
Record (3 meetings): Leicester 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 3W.
What form are Leicester and Fulham in?
Leicester (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.69x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.03x) against Leicester's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
17%
5.77
26%
3.86
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.90
1.91
Fulham xG
5.77
17%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
3%
38.85
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Leicester and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Leicester and 1.91 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Leicester have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 27W 9D 23L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 20W 17D 22L from 59 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Leicester against 1.31 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Leicester have posted 1.69 PPG from 29 outings (15W 4D 10L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 7W 10D 12L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.47 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Fulham in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 27W 9D 23L in their last 59 games (1.53 PPG), while Fulham have gone 20W 17D 22L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Fulham away?
Leicester's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.69 PPG; Fulham away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fulham go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Leicester
0
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Fulham?
From 4 meetings on record, Leicester have won 0, Fulham have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Leicester 0-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 55%, Fulham 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Leicester) and 55% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Leicester's games and 62% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Leicester's matches and 55% of Fulham's.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Leicester 0-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 0.99 xG and Fulham 1.91 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Leicester fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.69 / defence 1.22 against Fulham attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 17% | Draw 26% | Fulham 57%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 64%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.53 PPG, Fulham 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.