Leicester 1-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leicester face Bournemouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bournemouth travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester in Premier League (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Leicester stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bournemouth — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Leicester) versus 1.10 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Leicester's games and 60% of Bournemouth's (from Leicester's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Leicester, 2 for Bournemouth and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Apr 2023, ended Leicester 0–1 Bournemouth — a Bournemouth win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leicester in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 59% and Bournemouth 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 61% | Bournemouth 68%). Note also that Bournemouth surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Leicester recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.32 xG and Bournemouth 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.751 / defence 1.059 | Bournemouth attack 0.947 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.467. Leicester's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Data: built from Leicester's last 6 games and Bournemouth's last 44.
Result probabilities: Leicester 32% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 39%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 3.15 | Draw 3.40 | Bournemouth 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Leicester's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leicester 80% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 7 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 32% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Leicester 1.32 / Bournemouth 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.751 / def 1.059 | Bournemouth attack 0.947 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Bournemouth xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leicester vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Leicester vs Bournemouth kick off?
Leicester vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Leicester 1 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is Leicester vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Bournemouth part of?
Leicester vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 32% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Leicester and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leicester vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leicester's attack rating (0.75) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Leicester's last 6 games and Bournemouth's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
32%
3.15
29%
3.40
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.79
1.47
Bournemouth xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
7%
13.73
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leicester vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Leicester and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Leicester and 1.47 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester come into this having played 44 games, going 24W 7D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Bournemouth sit at 1.27 PPG from 44 outings (15W 11D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Leicester carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Leicester's home form reads 14W 3D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Bournemouth have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.41 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 61%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
Leicester (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leicester
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
❓ Leicester vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Leicester and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 24W 7D 13L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Bournemouth away?
Leicester's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 2.05 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leicester's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Leicester
0
Draws
3
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Leicester vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Bournemouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Leicester have won 1, Bournemouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2025: Bournemouth 2-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 54%, Bournemouth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Leicester and 77% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leicester vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leicester and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Leicester's games and 68% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Leicester and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Leicester's matches and 77% of Bournemouth's.
Do Leicester and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Leicester's recent matches and 82% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Bournemouth 1-0 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.32 xG and Bournemouth 1.47 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bournemouth landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Bournemouth attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 32% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 39%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Leicester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, Bournemouth 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Bournemouth's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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