Crystal Palace 0-1 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Liverpool (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crystal Palace face Liverpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Selhurst Park plays host to Crystal Palace versus Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crystal Palace have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Selhurst Park. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Crystal Palace are significantly better at Selhurst Park than their overall form suggests.
Liverpool (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Liverpool have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Liverpool away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Liverpool are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Crystal Palace, 3 for Liverpool and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Crystal Palace winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crystal Palace 61% and Liverpool 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 54% | Liverpool 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.10 xG and Liverpool 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.927 / defence 0.919 | Liverpool attack 1.158 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.473. Liverpool's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Crystal Palace games / 44 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 24% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 46%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Liverpool 2.17. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Crystal Palace 40% | Liverpool 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 24% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Crystal Palace 1.10 / Liverpool 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.927 / def 0.919 | Liverpool attack 1.158 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Liverpool xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Liverpool kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Crystal Palace 0 - 1 Liverpool.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Liverpool part of?
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 24% chance of winning, Liverpool a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Crystal Palace and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Liverpool?
Record (6 meetings): Crystal Palace 1W | Draws 2 | Liverpool 3W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Liverpool in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Liverpool (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crystal Palace's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Liverpool's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.16x) against Crystal Palace's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
24%
4.15
30%
3.31
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.67
1.57
Liverpool xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
5%
19.90
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.57 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 13W 13D 18L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Liverpool's form line: 29W 10D 5L from 44 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Liverpool, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crystal Palace.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 12W 7D 3L from 22 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.23 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crystal Palace have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Liverpool in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Early Season
Liverpool
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 29W 10D 5L in their last 44 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.36 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Liverpool in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
5
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 2, Liverpool have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 54%, Liverpool 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Crystal Palace and 64% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Crystal Palace's games and 68% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Crystal Palace's matches and 64% of Liverpool's.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Crystal Palace 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Crystal Palace 0-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.10 xG and Liverpool 1.57 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crystal Palace fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Liverpool attack 1.16 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 24% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 46%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 54%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Liverpool's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.