Hull City vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Everton at MKM Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 5W 4D 1L at MKM Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MKM Stadium.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hull City carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Everton in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 54% versus Everton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 51% | Everton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.05 xG and Everton 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.769 / defence 0.830 | Everton attack 0.962 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.203. Hull City's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Hull City games / 40 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 35% | Draw 34% | Everton 31%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Everton 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Hull City 50% | Everton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 35% | Draw 34% | Everton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Hull City 1.05 / Everton 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.769 / def 0.830 | Everton attack 0.962 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hull City (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Everton xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Everton kick off?
Hull City vs Everton is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at MKM Stadium.
Where is Hull City vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Everton part of?
Hull City vs Everton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 35% chance of winning, Everton a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Hull City and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Everton in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Everton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.77) and Everton's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
35%
2.83
34%
2.95
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.01
0.96
Everton xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Hull City and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Hull City and 0.96 for Everton, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 41 games, going 20W 9D 12L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.32 PPG from 41 outings (14W 12D 15L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.68 PPG, Everton on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hull City's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.27 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Everton in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 9D 12L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 12D 15L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Everton away?
Hull City's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.60 PPG; Everton away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Hull City or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Everton in 29%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 50%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Hull City) and 35% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 30% of games; Everton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hull City's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Hull City's recent games and 35% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Everton tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Everton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.