Fulham 3-2 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 41%, yet in-form Wolves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fulham host Wolves at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 November 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fulham — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fulham have posted 4W 1D 5L at Craven Cottage — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolves stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Wolves have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolves — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fulham, 0 for Wolves and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fulham in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Wolves in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 56% versus Wolves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Wolves 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.41 xG and Wolves 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.781 / defence 1.022 | Wolves attack 0.849 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.402. Fulham's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Fulham games / 50 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 41% | Draw 26% | Wolves 33%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Wolves 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolves (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Wolves 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 41% | Draw 26% | Wolves 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Fulham 1.41 / Wolves 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.781 / def 1.022 | Wolves attack 0.849 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Fulham (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Wolves xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Wolves kick off?
Fulham vs Wolves kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Wolves?
Fulham 3 - 2 Wolves.
Where is Fulham vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Wolves part of?
Fulham vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 41% chance of winning, Wolves a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fulham and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Wolves?
Record (2 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 2 | Wolves 0W.
What form are Fulham and Wolves in?
Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Wolves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fulham's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Wolves's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.83
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.62
1.22
Wolves xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
8%
12.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Fulham and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Fulham and 1.22 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 10D 22L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.12 PPG from 50 outings (15W 11D 24L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.28 PPG, Wolves on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fulham's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (4W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 0.94 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Wolves in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 18W 10D 22L in their last 50 games (1.28 PPG), while Wolves have gone 15W 11D 24L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Wolves away?
Fulham's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.46 PPG; Wolves away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Wolves won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fulham
3
Draws
2
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Wolves?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, Wolves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Wolves 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Wolves?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 58%, Wolves 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fulham) and 50% (Wolves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 29% of games; Wolves in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Wolves?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fulham's games and 54% of Wolves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fulham's matches and 50% of Wolves's.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Wolves 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Wolves 3-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.41 xG and Wolves 1.22 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Wolves attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 41% | Draw 26% | Wolves 33%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Wolves 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Wolves's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.28 PPG, Wolves 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.