Everton 0-3 Manchester United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Manchester United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Manchester United make the trip to Goodison Park to face Everton in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Everton (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Everton have posted 2W 1D 7L at Goodison Park — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Goodison Park this season.
Manchester United have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Manchester United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Manchester United's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Everton, 1.80 for Manchester United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Everton lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Manchester United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Manchester United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 46% versus Manchester United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 44% | Manchester United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.05 xG and Manchester United 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.739 / defence 0.892 | Manchester United attack 0.814 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.383. Everton's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Everton games / 50 Manchester United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Manchester United 34%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Manchester United 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Manchester United 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Manchester United | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Manchester United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Everton 1.05 / Manchester United 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.739 / def 0.892 | Manchester United attack 0.814 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Everton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Manchester United xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Manchester United kick off?
Everton vs Manchester United kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Manchester United?
Everton 0 - 3 Manchester United.
Where is Everton vs Manchester United being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Manchester United part of?
Everton vs Manchester United is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Manchester United?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 36% chance of winning, Manchester United a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Manchester United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Everton and Manchester United will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Manchester United?
Record (4 meetings): Everton 1W | Draws 1 | Manchester United 2W.
What form are Everton and Manchester United in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Manchester United (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.74) and Manchester United's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Manchester United's attack (0.81x) against Everton's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.30
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Everton xG
Total xG
2.05
1.00
Manchester United xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Manchester United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Everton and Manchester United expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Everton and 1.00 for Manchester United, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Manchester United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Everton have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 14D 24L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Manchester United's form line: 30W 6D 14L from 50 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Manchester United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Manchester United are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L).
On the road, Manchester United have gone 11W 3D 10L from 24 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Manchester United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Manchester United are on 1.42 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Manchester United in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Manchester United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Manchester United in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 12W 14D 24L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while Manchester United have gone 30W 6D 14L in their last 50 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Manchester United away?
Manchester United's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.04 PPG; Manchester United away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Everton or Manchester United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Manchester United in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester United won 4-0 on 1 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Manchester United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Everton
2
Draws
6
Manchester United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Manchester United?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 2, Manchester United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Manchester United last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Everton 0-1 Manchester United.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Manchester United?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 42%, Manchester United 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 42% (Manchester United).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Manchester United in 33%; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Manchester United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Manchester United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Everton's recent matches and 42% of Manchester United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Manchester United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton's recent games and 42% of Manchester United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Manchester United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester United beat Everton 0-3 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.05 xG and Manchester United 1.00 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Everton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Manchester United outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against Manchester United attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 36% | Draw 30% | Manchester United 34%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Manchester United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 44%, Manchester United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester United's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester United arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.