Everton vs Newcastle – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Newcastle travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Everton haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Newcastle — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Newcastle haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Everton) versus 1.30 (Newcastle). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Everton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Newcastle in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Everton, 4 for Newcastle and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Newcastle trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 50% versus Newcastle 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 45% | Newcastle 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.50 xG and Newcastle 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.997 / defence 1.122 | Newcastle attack 0.901 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.214. Data: 38 Everton games / 38 Newcastle games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 30%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Newcastle 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton 70% | Newcastle 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Everton 1.50 / Newcastle 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.997 / def 1.122 | Newcastle attack 0.901 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Everton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Newcastle xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?
Everton vs Newcastle is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Newcastle part of?
Everton vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 42% chance of winning, Newcastle a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Everton and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
Record (10 meetings): Everton 4W | Draws 2 | Newcastle 4W.
What form are Everton and Newcastle in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Everton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Everton vs Newcastle?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (1.00) and Newcastle's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.56
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Everton xG
Total xG
2.72
1.23
Newcastle xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Everton and 1.23 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Everton have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 13W 10D 15L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. Everton haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Newcastle's form line: 14W 7D 17L from 38 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. Newcastle haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.29 PPG, Newcastle on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 4W 5D 10L from 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Newcastle's season.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.39 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Pre-Season
Newcastle
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 13W 10D 15L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Newcastle away?
Everton's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.21 PPG; Newcastle away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Newcastle runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton
2
Draws
4
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 4, Newcastle have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 53%, Newcastle 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Everton) and 47% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Newcastle in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Everton's recent matches and 53% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Everton's recent games and 47% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Newcastle tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.