Port Vale 0-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carlisle make the trip to Vale Park to face Port Vale in League Two, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port Vale's overall League Two record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port Vale have posted 4W 4D 2L at Vale Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carlisle (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carlisle's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Port Vale. A 1.00 PPG lead over Carlisle (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Port Vale lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2024, ended 1–2 with Carlisle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 42% versus Carlisle 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Carlisle 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.51 xG and Carlisle 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.012 / defence 1.035 | Carlisle attack 0.763 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.194. Data: 20 Port Vale games / 19 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 50% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 23%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Carlisle 4.35. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 60% | Carlisle 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 50% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Port Vale 1.51 / Carlisle 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.012 / def 1.035 | Carlisle attack 0.763 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Carlisle xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Carlisle kick off?
Port Vale vs Carlisle kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Port Vale 0 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Port Vale vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Carlisle part of?
Port Vale vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 50% chance of winning, Carlisle a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port Vale and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Carlisle?
Record (4 meetings): Port Vale 2W | Draws 1 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are Port Vale and Carlisle in?
Port Vale (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Carlisle (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (1.01) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (0.76x) against Port Vale's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.70
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.46
0.94
Carlisle xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
5%
19.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.94 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale's recent record stands at 20W 17D 28L from 65 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 41L across 65 games — 0.68 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port Vale by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carlisle heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 10W 7D 15L from 32 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 6W 5D 21L across 32 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.86 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 65 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 20W 17D 28L in their last 65 games (1.18 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 10W 14D 41L in their last 65 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Carlisle away?
Port Vale's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.16 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Carlisle in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Carlisle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
2
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Carlisle?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Carlisle have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Carlisle 3-2 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 50%, Carlisle 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Port Vale) and 47% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Port Vale have failed to score in 31% of games; Carlisle in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Port Vale's recent matches and 47% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Port Vale's recent games and 47% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Carlisle tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale and Carlisle finished level at 0-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 21, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.51 xG and Carlisle 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Carlisle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Carlisle attack 0.76 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 50% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 23%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Carlisle 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carlisle's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.