Gillingham 0-0 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Walsall at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gillingham face Walsall.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gillingham welcome Walsall to Priestfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 38). Kick-off is Saturday 22 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gillingham stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Walsall have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Walsall away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Gillingham) versus 1.10 (Walsall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Gillingham have won 0, Walsall 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2025, ended Gillingham 1–1 Walsall — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gillingham in-play tendencies (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Walsall in-play tendencies (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 42% versus Walsall 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 35% | Walsall 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.03 xG and Walsall 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.772 / defence 0.971 | Walsall attack 1.163 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.083. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Gillingham's last 82 games and Walsall's last 83.
Result probabilities: Gillingham 31% | Draw 29% | Walsall 41%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.24 | Draw 3.50 | Walsall 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Walsall are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gillingham 40% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, matchday 38 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 31% | Draw 29% | Walsall 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Gillingham 1.03 / Walsall 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.772 / def 0.971 | Walsall attack 1.163 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Walsall (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Walsall xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall FAQs
What time does Gillingham vs Walsall kick off?
Gillingham vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 22 March 2025 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Walsall?
Gillingham 0 - 0 Walsall.
Where is Gillingham vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Walsall part of?
Gillingham vs Walsall is a League Two fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 31% chance of winning, Walsall a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gillingham and Walsall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Gillingham vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.77x the league average against Walsall's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gillingham's last 82 games and Walsall's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
31%
3.24
29%
3.50
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.25
1.22
Walsall xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.22 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 82 outings, Gillingham have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 29W 19D 34L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Walsall's form line: 38W 20D 24L from 82 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.29 PPG, Walsall on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gillingham have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 40 home games (16W 11D 13L).
On the road, Walsall have gone 14W 10D 16L from their last 40 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.65 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall in 62%.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
Gillingham (Home) vs Walsall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gillingham
Current Season
Walsall
Current Season
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall Form FAQs
What form are Gillingham and Walsall in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 29W 19D 34L in their last 82 games (1.29 PPG), while Walsall have gone 38W 20D 24L in their last 82 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Walsall away?
Gillingham's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.48 PPG; Walsall away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Walsall in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Oct 2023, when Walsall won Walsall 4-1 Gillingham.
Gillingham's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Gillingham
5
Draws
3
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Walsall?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Gillingham have won 1, Walsall have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Walsall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Gillingham 0-3 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 42%, Walsall 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gillingham) and 58% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gillingham vs Walsall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gillingham and Walsall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gillingham's recent matches and 58% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gillingham and Walsall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gillingham's recent games and 58% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Walsall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Gillingham's recent matches and 75% of Walsall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gillingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 38, as Gillingham and Walsall drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.03 xG and Walsall 1.22 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Walsall landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.77 / defence 0.97 against Walsall attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 31% | Draw 29% | Walsall 41%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 35%, Walsall 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.29 PPG, Walsall 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line. Walsall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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