Swindon Town 0-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swindon Town at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swindon Town vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swindon Town host Accrington ST at The Nigel Eady County Ground in League Two (matchday 38). Kick-off is Saturday 22 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Swindon Town — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Swindon Town have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Accrington ST stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Accrington ST away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Swindon Town have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Swindon Town have won 1, Accrington ST 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Nov 2024, ended Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington ST — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Swindon Town 69% and Accrington ST 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 65% | Accrington ST 59%). Note also that Accrington ST surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Swindon Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 2.02 xG and Accrington ST 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.351 / defence 1.274 | Accrington ST attack 0.917 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.083. Swindon Town carry an above-average attack rating of 1.351 — their 2.02 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Swindon Town's defence rating of 1.274 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Accrington ST's projected output up. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 83 games and Accrington ST's last 83.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 55% | Draw 21% | Accrington ST 24%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.82 | Draw 4.67 | Accrington ST 4.24. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.02 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Accrington ST's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Accrington ST 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, matchday 38 | Venue: The Nigel Eady County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 22 March 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 55% | Draw 21% | Accrington ST 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Swindon Town 2.02 / Accrington ST 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.351 / def 1.274 | Accrington ST attack 0.917 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Accrington ST xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 22 March 2025 at The Nigel Eady County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Swindon Town 0 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at The Nigel Eady County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST is a League Two fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 55% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Swindon Town and Accrington ST will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swindon Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Swindon Town's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 83 games and Accrington ST's last 83 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.67
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
3.29
1.26
Accrington ST xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
3%
32.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.26 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swindon Town come into this having played 83 games, going 25W 26D 32L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.17 PPG from 83 outings (26W 19D 38L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.22 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swindon Town's home form reads 18W 11D 12L across their last 41 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 41 away games (11W 6D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swindon Town are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.30 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
Swindon Town (Home) vs Accrington ST (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 25W 26D 32L in their last 83 games (1.22 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 26W 19D 38L in their last 83 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.59 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Oct 2025, when Accrington ST won Accrington ST 4-0 Swindon Town.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Swindon Town
4
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Accrington ST?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 1, Accrington ST have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Swindon Town at 66%, Accrington ST at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Swindon Town and 63% for Accrington ST. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Accrington ST Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Accrington ST matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Swindon Town's games and 66% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Swindon Town and Accrington ST matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Swindon Town's matches and 63% of Accrington ST's.
Do Swindon Town and Accrington ST matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 73% of Accrington ST's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Swindon Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town and Accrington ST finished level at 0-0 at The Nigel Eady County Ground, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.02 xG and Accrington ST 1.26 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Swindon Town fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Accrington ST landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.35 / defence 1.27 against Accrington ST attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 55% | Draw 21% | Accrington ST 24%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 65%, Accrington ST 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Accrington ST's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.22 PPG, Accrington ST 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swindon Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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