Colchester 1-2 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colchester at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colchester vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 14 as Colchester welcome Salford City to JobServe Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colchester at JobServe Community Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Salford City — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Salford City's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Colchester's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Colchester, 1 for Salford City and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Colchester trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Salford City trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Colchester 67% and Salford City 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 50% | Salford City 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.09 xG and Salford City 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.889 / defence 0.910 | Salford City attack 0.781 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.234. Data: 58 Colchester games / 58 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 40% | Draw 31% | Salford City 29%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Salford City 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Colchester dominate the H2H record, yet Salford City are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Colchester as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salford City (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 50% | Salford City 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 40% | Draw 31% | Salford City 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Colchester 1.09 / Salford City 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.889 / def 0.910 | Salford City attack 0.781 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Colchester (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Salford City xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Salford City kick off?
Colchester vs Salford City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Colchester 1 - 2 Salford City.
Where is Colchester vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Salford City part of?
Colchester vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 40% chance of winning, Salford City a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Colchester and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
Record (6 meetings): Colchester 3W | Draws 2 | Salford City 1W.
What form are Colchester and Salford City in?
Colchester (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Salford City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Colchester vs Salford City?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colchester's attack at 0.89x the league average against Salford City's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.23
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Colchester xG
Total xG
1.97
0.88
Salford City xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Colchester and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Colchester and 0.88 for Salford City, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Colchester come into this having played 58 games, going 13W 18D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.16 PPG from 58 outings (17W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 0.98 PPG, Salford City on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Colchester's home form reads 8W 9D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (8W 8D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Colchester are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.31 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Colchester have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Salford City in 64%.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Salford City in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 13W 18D 27L in their last 58 games (0.98 PPG), while Salford City have gone 17W 16D 25L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Salford City away?
Colchester's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.18 PPG; Salford City away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Salford City have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colchester's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Colchester
2
Draws
5
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Salford City?
From 10 meetings on record, Colchester have won 3, Salford City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 75%, Salford City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Colchester) and 46% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Salford City in 32%; Salford City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Salford City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Colchester's games and 54% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Colchester vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Colchester's recent games and 46% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Salford City tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Salford City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Colchester 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Colchester 1-2 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.09 xG and Salford City 0.88 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Salford City outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Salford City attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 40% | Draw 31% | Salford City 29%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 50%, Salford City 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Salford City's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 0.98 PPG, Salford City 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.