Wigan 1-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 44%, yet in-form Mansfield Town provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wigan vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 13 as Wigan welcome Mansfield Town to The Brick Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan at The Brick Community Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Wigan are significantly better at The Brick Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Mansfield Town have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Mansfield Town's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Wigan's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 46% versus Mansfield Town 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 41% | Mansfield Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.12 xG and Mansfield Town 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.828 / defence 0.600 | Mansfield Town attack 0.996 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.252. Wigan's defence rating of 0.600 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Wigan games / 10 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 44% | Draw 31% | Mansfield Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Mansfield Town 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mansfield Town (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 10% | Mansfield Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 44% | Draw 31% | Mansfield Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Wigan 1.12 / Mansfield Town 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.828 / def 0.600 | Mansfield Town attack 0.996 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Wigan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Mansfield Town xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Wigan vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Mansfield Town?
Wigan 1 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Wigan vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Mansfield Town part of?
Wigan vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 44% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Wigan and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Mansfield Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wigan and Mansfield Town in?
Wigan (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Wigan vs Mansfield Town?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Wigan's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.19
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.87
0.75
Mansfield Town xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Wigan and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Wigan and 0.75 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wigan's recent record stands at 22W 14D 20L from 56 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 10L across 56 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mansfield Town by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wigan heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 14W 6D 7L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 14W 7D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.91 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 64%.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 22W 14D 20L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 30W 16D 10L in their last 56 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.78 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Wigan or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wigan and Mansfield Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wigan's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wigan
2
Draws
1
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Wigan 2-1 Mansfield Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 30%, Mansfield Town 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Wigan) and 59% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Mansfield Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Wigan's recent matches and 70% of Mansfield Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Wigan's recent games and 59% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mansfield Town defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Wigan 1-2 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.12 xG and Mansfield Town 0.75 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.83 / defence 0.60 against Mansfield Town attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 44% | Draw 31% | Mansfield Town 24%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Mansfield Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 41%, Mansfield Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.