Wigan 1-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Burton Albion at The Brick Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wigan have posted 3W 3D 4L at The Brick Community Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Wigan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wigan, 1 for Burton Albion and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wigan in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 47% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 44% | Burton Albion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.00 xG and Burton Albion 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.791 / defence 1.097 | Burton Albion attack 0.756 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.170. Wigan's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Wigan games / 71 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 35% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 33%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Burton Albion 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 30% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 35% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Wigan 1.00 / Burton Albion 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.791 / def 1.097 | Burton Albion attack 0.756 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Wigan (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Burton Albion xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Burton Albion kick off?
Wigan vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Wigan 1 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Wigan vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Burton Albion part of?
Wigan vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 35% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Wigan and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Burton Albion?
Record (4 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Wigan and Burton Albion in?
Wigan (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wigan's attack at 0.79x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.13
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.97
0.97
Burton Albion xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.6 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Wigan and 0.97 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wigan come into this having played 70 games, going 28W 16D 26L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 0.87 PPG from 70 outings (14W 19D 37L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wigan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wigan's home form reads 16W 7D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.88 points per game from 34 outings (6W 12D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.86 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 28W 16D 26L in their last 70 games (1.43 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 14W 19D 37L in their last 70 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Burton Albion away?
Wigan's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.62 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Wigan or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wigan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Wigan's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Wigan
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Wigan have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when Burton Albion 0-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Burton Albion?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 35%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Wigan) and 47% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 29% of games; Burton Albion in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Wigan's recent matches and 47% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Wigan's recent games and 47% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Wigan 1-2 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.00 xG and Burton Albion 0.97 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Burton Albion attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 35% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 33%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 44%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.