Stockport County 1-0 Wrexham – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 43%, yet in-form Wrexham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stockport County vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Stockport County host Wrexham at Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 16 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Stockport County stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Stockport County have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Wrexham have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Wrexham have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wrexham — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Stockport County have won 1, Wrexham 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2024, ended Stockport County 1–2 Wrexham — a Wrexham win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Stockport County trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Wrexham trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Wrexham 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 55% | Wrexham 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.39 xG and Wrexham 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.122 / defence 1.184 | Wrexham attack 0.812 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.149. Data: built from Stockport County's last 15 games and Wrexham's last 14.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 43% | Draw 27% | Wrexham 30%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.30 | Draw 3.74 | Wrexham 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wrexham (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Stockport County 40% (last 10 home games) | Wrexham 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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