Stockport County 5-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Stockport County have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stockport County's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bolton's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Bolton have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Bolton are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bolton — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Bolton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 53% | Bolton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.20 xG and Bolton 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.881 / defence 1.317 | Bolton attack 1.348 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.188. Bolton have an above-average attack rating of 1.348, which lifts their away xG to 2.11. Stockport County's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bolton's projected output up. Data: built from Stockport County's last 14 games and Bolton's last 59.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 21% | Draw 21% | Bolton 58%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 4.76 | Draw 4.84 | Bolton 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.20 / 2.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 40% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Bolton | Competition: League One, matchday 15 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 21% | Draw 21% | Bolton 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Stockport County 1.20 / Bolton 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.881 / def 1.317 | Bolton attack 1.348 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Bolton (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Bolton xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stockport County vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Stockport County vs Bolton kick off?
Stockport County vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Bolton?
Stockport County 5 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Stockport County vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Bolton part of?
Stockport County vs Bolton is a League One fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 21% chance of winning, Bolton a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stockport County and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stockport County vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.88x the league average against Bolton's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.35x) against Stockport County's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 2.11.
These ratings are built from Stockport County's last 14 games and Bolton's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
21%
4.76
21%
4.84
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.31
2.11
Bolton xG
4.76
21%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
12%
8.25
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
3%
39.24
18%
5.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stockport County vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Stockport County and 2.11 for Bolton, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Bolton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stockport County come into this having played 60 games, going 32W 17D 11L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.78 PPG from 60 outings (31W 14D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Stockport County against 1.78 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stockport County's home form reads 18W 7D 4L across their last 29 home games, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.69 points per game from their last 29 away games (14W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.78 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Bolton
Blended
Stockport County (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stockport County
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Stockport County vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Stockport County and Bolton in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 32W 17D 11L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Bolton have gone 31W 14D 15L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Bolton away?
Stockport County's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.10 PPG; Bolton away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bolton in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 24 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won Stockport County 5-0 Bolton on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Stockport County vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Bolton?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Stockport County have won 3, Bolton have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 May 2026: Bolton 4-1 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Bolton?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 38%, Bolton 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Stockport County) and 41% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Bolton in 31%; Bolton in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stockport County vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stockport County and Bolton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Stockport County's recent matches and 48% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stockport County and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Stockport County's recent games and 41% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Stockport County's recent matches and 66% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stockport County run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Bolton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Bolton 5-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.20 xG and Bolton 2.11 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Stockport County beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bolton landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.88 / defence 1.32 against Bolton attack 1.35 / defence 1.01, drawn from 14/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 21% | Draw 21% | Bolton 58%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Stockport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 53%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.88 PPG, Bolton 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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