Stevenage 2-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 33 as Stevenage welcome Port Vale to Lamex Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Port Vale's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 0.90 PPG, Port Vale 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Port Vale and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Port Vale 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 35% | Port Vale 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.31 xG and Port Vale 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.780 / defence 0.693 | Port Vale attack 0.659 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 76 Stevenage games / 28 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 56% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 15%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Port Vale 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Port Vale's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Port Vale 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 56% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 30% | xG Stevenage 1.31 / Port Vale 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.780 / def 0.693 | Port Vale attack 0.659 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Port Vale xG
30%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Port Vale kick off?
Stevenage vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Stevenage 2 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Stevenage vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Port Vale part of?
Stevenage vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 56% chance of winning, Port Vale a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Stevenage and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Port Vale?
Record (5 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 3 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Port Vale in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Port Vale (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.78x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.4%), 2-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
56%
1.78
29%
3.44
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.83
0.53
Port Vale xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.36
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
4%
24.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.9 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.53 for Port Vale, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 26W 21D 27L from 74 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 27W 21D 26L across 74 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.34 PPG, Port Vale on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 15W 11D 10L from 36 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 12W 10D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 26W 21D 27L in their last 74 games (1.34 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 27W 21D 26L in their last 74 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Port Vale away?
Stevenage's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.56 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Port Vale in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stevenage have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Stevenage's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Port Vale?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Port Vale have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Stevenage 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Port Vale?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Port Vale 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stevenage) and 42% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Port Vale in 31%; Port Vale in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 42% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 42% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Port Vale 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Port Vale 2-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.31 xG and Port Vale 0.53 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.69 against Port Vale attack 0.66 / defence 1.21, drawn from 76/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 56% | Draw 29% | Port Vale 15%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 35%, Port Vale 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.34 PPG, Port Vale 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.