Stevenage 0-0 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stevenage face Port Vale.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stevenage welcome Port Vale to The Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stevenage have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Port Vale — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Port Vale's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 1.20 PPG, Port Vale 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Stevenage have won 0, Port Vale 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2022, ended Stevenage 0–2 Port Vale — a Port Vale win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 43% versus Port Vale 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 40% | Port Vale 50%). Note also that Port Vale surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Stevenage recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.41 xG and Port Vale 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.871 / defence 1.061 | Port Vale attack 0.868 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.121. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Data: built from Stevenage's last 13 games and Port Vale's last 58.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 46% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 28%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.20 | Draw 3.73 | Port Vale 3.62. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stevenage 50% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 14 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 46% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Stevenage 1.41 / Port Vale 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.871 / def 1.061 | Port Vale attack 0.868 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Port Vale xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Port Vale kick off?
Stevenage vs Port Vale kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Stevenage 0 - 0 Port Vale.
Where is Stevenage vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Port Vale part of?
Stevenage vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 46% chance of winning, Port Vale a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stevenage and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Stevenage vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.87x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 13 games and Port Vale's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.73
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Port Vale xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.03 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 29W 16D 13L from 58 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 28L across 58 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 19W 5D 5L from their last 29 home games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 7W 7D 15L across their last 29 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.02 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
Stevenage (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 games (1.78 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 18W 12D 28L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Port Vale away?
Stevenage's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.14 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Port Vale in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 17 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Stevenage have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Stevenage's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Port Vale?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 2, Port Vale have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2026: Stevenage 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Port Vale?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 41%, Port Vale 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Stevenage) and 59% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Port Vale in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stevenage's recent matches and 52% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Stevenage's recent games and 59% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Stevenage's recent matches and 66% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stevenage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Port Vale finished level at 0-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.41 xG and Port Vale 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Port Vale landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Port Vale attack 0.87 / defence 1.30, drawn from 13/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 46% | Draw 27% | Port Vale 28%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 40%, Port Vale 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Port Vale's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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