Shrewsbury 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Derby travel to The Croud Meadow to take on Shrewsbury in League One (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Shrewsbury have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derby's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Shrewsbury, 0 for Derby and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Shrewsbury 2–2 Derby — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shrewsbury trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Derby trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 40% versus Derby 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 44% | Derby 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.92 xG and Derby 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.790 / defence 0.919 | Derby attack 1.395 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.121. Shrewsbury's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Derby have an above-average attack rating of 1.395, which lifts their away xG to 1.44. Data: built from Shrewsbury's last 58 games and Derby's last 57.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 24% | Draw 27% | Derby 49%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 4.16 | Draw 3.73 | Derby 2.03. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shrewsbury 40% (last 10 home games) | Derby 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Derby | Competition: League One, matchday 14 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 24% | Draw 27% | Derby 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Shrewsbury 0.92 / Derby 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.790 / def 0.919 | Derby attack 1.395 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Derby (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Derby xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Derby FAQs
What time does Shrewsbury vs Derby kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Derby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Shrewsbury 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Derby part of?
Shrewsbury vs Derby is a League One fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 24% chance of winning, Derby a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shrewsbury and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Shrewsbury vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.79) and Derby's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shrewsbury's last 58 games and Derby's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
24%
4.16
27%
3.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.35
1.44
Derby xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
6%
17.50
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.6 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shrewsbury vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.44 for Derby, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shrewsbury come into this having played 57 games, going 21W 9D 27L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.65 PPG from 57 outings (26W 16D 15L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.26 PPG, Derby on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shrewsbury's home form reads 14W 4D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 29 away games (12W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.49 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Derby
Blended
Shrewsbury (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shrewsbury
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Shrewsbury vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Shrewsbury and Derby in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 21W 9D 27L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Derby have gone 26W 16D 15L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Derby away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.59 PPG; Derby away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Derby in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Shrewsbury vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Derby?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shrewsbury have won 1, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Derby?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 45%, Derby 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Shrewsbury) and 45% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 31%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 41% of games; Derby in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shrewsbury and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 52% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shrewsbury and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 45% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 66% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Derby 1-0 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.92 xG and Derby 1.44 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.79 / defence 0.92 against Derby attack 1.40 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 24% | Draw 27% | Derby 49%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Shrewsbury win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 44%, Derby 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.26 PPG, Derby 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shrewsbury win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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