Stevenage 0-0 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Fleetwood Town in League One, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium.
Fleetwood Town (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stevenage, 0 for Fleetwood Town and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Stevenage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Fleetwood Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 44% versus Fleetwood Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Fleetwood Town 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.39 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.851 / defence 0.868 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.021 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.209. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Stevenage games / 82 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 29%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Fleetwood Town 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Fleetwood Town 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Stevenage 1.39 / Fleetwood Town 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.851 / def 0.868 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.021 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Fleetwood Town xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town?
Stevenage 0 - 0 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 44% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stevenage and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Fleetwood Town in?
Stevenage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Fleetwood Town's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (1.02x) against Stevenage's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 35/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.73
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.46
1.07
Fleetwood Town xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.07 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 81 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 41W 22D 18L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Fleetwood Town's form line: 21W 26D 34L from 81 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fleetwood Town.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.08 PPG from 40 outings (25W 8D 7L).
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 10W 15D 15L from 40 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.14 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 41W 22D 18L in their last 81 games (1.79 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 21W 26D 34L in their last 81 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Stevenage's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.08 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
0
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Fleetwood Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Fleetwood Town have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Stevenage 0-0 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Fleetwood Town?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 40%, Fleetwood Town 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 50% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Fleetwood Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stevenage's recent matches and 62% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 50% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stevenage's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 37, as Stevenage and Fleetwood Town drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.39 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.07 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Fleetwood Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 35/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 44% | Draw 27% | Fleetwood Town 29%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Fleetwood Town 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.