Burton Albion 1-3 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Peterborough meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Peterborough (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Peterborough's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.60 for Peterborough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Burton Albion, 2 for Peterborough and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 46% versus Peterborough 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 46% | Peterborough 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.01 xG and Peterborough 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.689 / defence 0.925 | Peterborough attack 1.146 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.209. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 81 Burton Albion games / 81 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 29% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 43%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Peterborough 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 20% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 29% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Burton Albion 1.01 / Peterborough 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.689 / def 0.925 | Peterborough attack 1.146 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Peterborough xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Peterborough kick off?
Burton Albion vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Burton Albion 1 - 3 Peterborough.
Where is Burton Albion vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Peterborough part of?
Burton Albion vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 29% chance of winning, Peterborough a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Burton Albion and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Peterborough?
Record (3 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 1 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Burton Albion and Peterborough in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.69) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.15x) against Burton Albion's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 81/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.56
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.29
1.28
Peterborough xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.28 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 81 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 25W 20D 36L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 42W 13D 26L from 81 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (15W 11D 14L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 19W 5D 16L from 40 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.75 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 81 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 25W 20D 36L in their last 81 games (1.17 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 42W 13D 26L in their last 81 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Peterborough away?
Peterborough's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.40 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Peterborough in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
3
Draws
4
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Peterborough?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Peterborough have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 42%, Peterborough 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burton Albion) and 58% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 58% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burton Albion's recent games and 58% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Peterborough tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Burton Albion 1-3 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.01 xG and Peterborough 1.28 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.69 / defence 0.93 against Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 29% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 43%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 46%, Peterborough 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Burton Albion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.