Exeter City 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stevenage at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Exeter City face Stevenage.

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Analysis

Stevenage make the trip to St James Park to face Exeter City in League One (matchday 43). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Exeter City have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Exeter City have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Stevenage (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Stevenage have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Exeter City, 1.10 for Stevenage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Exeter City, 0 for Stevenage and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Exeter City 1–1 Stevenage — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Exeter City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 87 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 45% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 46% | Stevenage 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 0.97 xG and Stevenage 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.730 / defence 0.912 | Stevenage attack 0.901 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.180. Exeter City's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Exeter City's last 87 games and Stevenage's last 41.

Result probabilities: Exeter City 34% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 34%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.93 | Draw 3.16 | Stevenage 2.92. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Exeter City 34% and Stevenage 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Exeter City's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Exeter City 50% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 60% (last 10 away games).

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