Wycombe 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wycombe vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 43 as Wycombe welcome Derby to Adams Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Wycombe — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Wycombe's home record at Adams Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Derby have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derby — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wycombe, 1 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wycombe trading profile (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wycombe 45% versus Derby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wycombe 45% | Derby 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wycombe 1.10 xG and Derby 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wycombe attack 1.070 / defence 1.111 | Derby attack 1.203 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.176. Derby's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derby have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 86 Wycombe games / 88 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wycombe 27% | Draw 25% | Derby 48%. Fair-value odds: Wycombe 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 2.08. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wycombe 60% | Derby 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wycombe vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Adams Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wycombe 27% | Draw 25% | Derby 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Wycombe 1.10 / Derby 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Wycombe attack 1.070 / def 1.111 | Derby attack 1.203 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Wycombe xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Derby xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wycombe vs Derby kick off?
Wycombe vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at Adams Park.
What was the final score in Wycombe vs Derby?
Wycombe 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Wycombe vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Adams Park.
What competition is Wycombe vs Derby part of?
Wycombe vs Derby is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wycombe vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Wycombe a 27% chance of winning, Derby a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wycombe vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wycombe and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Wycombe vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): Wycombe 1W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Wycombe and Derby in?
Wycombe (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wycombe's attack rating (1.07) and Derby's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Wycombe's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
27%
3.77
25%
3.98
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Wycombe xG
Total xG
2.67
1.57
Derby xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
6%
18.14
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wycombe vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Wycombe and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Wycombe and 1.57 for Derby, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Wycombe vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wycombe's recent record stands at 33W 21D 32L from 86 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 45W 20D 21L across 86 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wycombe heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wycombe have managed 18W 11D 14L from 43 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 20W 10D 13L across 43 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wycombe are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.60 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wycombe
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wycombe and Derby in coming into this match?
Wycombe have gone 33W 21D 32L in their last 86 games (1.40 PPG), while Derby have gone 45W 20D 21L in their last 86 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wycombe at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wycombe at home: 1.51 PPG; Derby away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Wycombe or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Derby in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Wycombe's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wycombe
2
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Wycombe have won 1, Derby have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wycombe and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2024, when Wycombe 0-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wycombe 46%, Derby 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wycombe) and 49% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Wycombe keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Derby in 37%; Wycombe have failed to score in 26% of games; Derby in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wycombe home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wycombe play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Wycombe's recent matches and 46% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wycombe vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wycombe's recent games and 49% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wycombe and Derby tend to score early?
Wycombe have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Derby in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wycombe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Adams Park, Regular Season - 43, as Wycombe and Derby drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 1.10 xG and Derby 1.57 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wycombe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Derby landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Derby attack 1.20 / defence 0.79, drawn from 86/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wycombe 27% | Draw 25% | Derby 48%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 45%, Derby 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wycombe's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wycombe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.