Charlton 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derby at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Derby encounter.

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Full Analysis

The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Derby in League One (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Charlton have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Charlton have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Charlton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Derby (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Derby away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derby are 1.60 PPG clear of Charlton over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Charlton, 1 for Derby and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Charlton 0–2 Derby — a Derby win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 67% versus Derby 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 55% | Derby 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charlton surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Derby have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.20 xG and Derby 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.155 / defence 1.339 | Derby attack 1.181 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.151. Derby bring a tight defence (rating 0.790, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Charlton's projected output down. Charlton's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Data: built from Charlton's last 75 games and Derby's last 75.

Result probabilities: Charlton 25% | Draw 23% | Derby 52%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.00 | Draw 4.33 | Derby 1.93. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 80% (last 10 home games) | Derby 40% (last 10 away games).

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