Charlton 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Derby at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Derby in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charlton have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Derby (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derby away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derby are 1.60 PPG clear of Charlton in recent League One fixtures (2.00 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Charlton 1W, Derby 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 67% versus Derby 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 55% | Derby 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.20 xG and Derby 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.155 / defence 1.339 | Derby attack 1.181 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.151. Derby's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Charlton games / 75 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 25% | Draw 23% | Derby 52%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Derby 1.92. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 80% | Derby 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 25% | Draw 23% | Derby 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Charlton 1.20 / Derby 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.155 / def 1.339 | Derby attack 1.181 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Derby (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Derby xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Derby kick off?
Charlton vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Derby?
Charlton 0 - 1 Derby.
Where is Charlton vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Derby part of?
Charlton vs Derby is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 25% chance of winning, Derby a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charlton and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 1W.
What form are Charlton and Derby in?
Charlton (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.16x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.18x) against Charlton's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
25%
4.00
23%
4.33
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.02
1.82
Derby xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
4%
24.69
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Charlton and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Charlton and 1.82 for Derby, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 23W 24D 28L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 38W 18D 19L from 75 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (15W 10D 13L).
On the road, Derby have gone 17W 9D 12L from 38 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Derby in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Derby in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 24D 28L in their last 75 games (1.24 PPG), while Derby have gone 38W 18D 19L in their last 75 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.45 PPG; Derby away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Charlton or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Derby in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 74%, Derby 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Charlton) and 45% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 34%; Derby in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Charlton's games and 47% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Charlton's recent games and 45% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Derby tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Derby in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Charlton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.20 xG and Derby 1.82 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charlton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Derby landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.16 / defence 1.34 against Derby attack 1.18 / defence 0.79, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 25% | Draw 23% | Derby 52%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 55%, Derby 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (75 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (75 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.