Burton Albion 0-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Burton Albion welcome Lincoln to Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Burton Albion — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Burton Albion at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lincoln stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burton Albion at 1.20 PPG versus Lincoln's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Burton Albion hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Lincoln and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Oct 2023, ended Burton Albion 1–0 Lincoln — a Burton Albion win.
The head-to-head data gives Burton Albion an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 47% versus Lincoln 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burton Albion 47% | Lincoln 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.13 xG and Lincoln 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.927 / defence 0.854 | Lincoln attack 0.835 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.151. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 75 games and Lincoln's last 75.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 43% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 26%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.35 | Draw 3.23 | Lincoln 3.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Burton Albion 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Lincoln's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 50% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 31 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 43% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Burton Albion 1.13 / Lincoln 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.927 / def 0.854 | Lincoln attack 0.835 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Lincoln xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Lincoln kick off?
Burton Albion vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Lincoln?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Burton Albion vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Lincoln part of?
Burton Albion vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 43% chance of winning, Lincoln a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Burton Albion and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Burton Albion vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 75 games and Lincoln's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.23
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
1.95
0.82
Lincoln xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.82 for Lincoln, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 23W 19D 33L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 22W 31D 22L from 75 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.17 PPG, Lincoln on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.51 PPG from their last 37 home games (15W 11D 11L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 11W 10D 16L from their last 37 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.03 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 23W 19D 33L in their last 75 games (1.17 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 22W 31D 22L in their last 75 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Lincoln away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.51 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lincoln in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 22 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Lincoln have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Dec 2022, when Burton Albion won Burton Albion 3-0 Lincoln.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Burton Albion
0
Draws
5
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Lincoln?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 5, Lincoln have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 January 2026: Lincoln 2-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 46%, Lincoln 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Burton Albion) and 38% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 32%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 32% of games; Lincoln in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 40% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Burton Albion's recent games and 38% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 76% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lincoln defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.13 xG and Lincoln 0.82 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.93 / defence 0.85 against Lincoln attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 43% | Draw 31% | Lincoln 26%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Lincoln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Lincoln 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lincoln's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.17 PPG, Lincoln 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Lincoln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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