Cambridge United 2-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambridge United vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stockport County make the trip to Cledara Abbey Stadium to face Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambridge United's overall League One record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambridge United have posted 3W 3D 4L at Cledara Abbey Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cambridge United are significantly better at Cledara Abbey Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stockport County have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stockport County arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambridge United lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 42% versus Stockport County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 42% | Stockport County 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 0.92 xG and Stockport County 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.874 / defence 1.193 | Stockport County attack 1.057 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.190. Data: 77 Cambridge United games / 32 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 23% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 50%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Stockport County 2.00. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 60% | Stockport County 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Cledara Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 23% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Cambridge United 0.92 / Stockport County 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.874 / def 1.193 | Stockport County attack 1.057 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Stockport County xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Stockport County kick off?
Cambridge United vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Stockport County?
Cambridge United 2 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is Cambridge United vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Cledara Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Stockport County part of?
Cambridge United vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 23% chance of winning, Stockport County a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cambridge United and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Cambridge United 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Cambridge United and Stockport County in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Stockport County (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (0.87) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (1.06x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 77/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
23%
4.41
27%
3.71
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.42
1.50
Stockport County xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
5%
19.76
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.50 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambridge United's recent record stands at 17W 20D 40L from 77 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 43W 20D 14L across 77 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambridge United have managed 12W 11D 15L from 38 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 18W 12D 8L across 38 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambridge United are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.88 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 17W 20D 40L in their last 77 games (0.92 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 43W 20D 14L in their last 77 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.24 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stockport County in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cambridge United
0
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Stockport County?
From 2 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 1, Stockport County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Cambridge United 2-0 Stockport County.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 45%, Stockport County 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cambridge United) and 58% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Cambridge United's games and 68% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambridge United vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cambridge United's recent games and 58% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Stockport County tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambridge United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Stockport County 2-0 at Cledara Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 0.92 xG and Stockport County 1.50 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambridge United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stockport County landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Stockport County attack 1.06 / defence 0.82, drawn from 77/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 23% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 50%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cambridge United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 42%, Stockport County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Stockport County's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Cambridge United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.