West Brom 0-0 Millwall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates West Brom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Millwall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus Millwall in Championship, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Hawthorns, West Brom have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Millwall (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for West Brom, 1.40 for Millwall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — West Brom lead 0W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 44% versus Millwall 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 46% | Millwall 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.15 xG and Millwall 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.788 / defence 0.735 | Millwall attack 0.887 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.001. West Brom's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. West Brom's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 West Brom games / 54 Millwall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 47% | Draw 32% | Millwall 21%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Millwall 4.76. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Millwall's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 10% | Millwall 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 47% | Draw 32% | Millwall 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG West Brom 1.15 / Millwall 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.788 / def 0.735 | Millwall attack 0.887 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: West Brom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Millwall xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Millwall kick off?
West Brom vs Millwall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Millwall?
West Brom 0 - 0 Millwall.
Where is West Brom vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Millwall part of?
West Brom vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 47% chance of winning, Millwall a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both West Brom and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Millwall?
Record (6 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 4 | Millwall 2W.
What form are West Brom and Millwall in?
West Brom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Millwall (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from West Brom's attack rating (0.79) and Millwall's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Millwall's attack (0.89x) against West Brom's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.4%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
47%
2.11
32%
3.15
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
West Brom xG
Total xG
1.80
0.65
Millwall xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are West Brom and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for West Brom and 0.65 for Millwall, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Brom come into this having played 54 games, going 25W 14D 15L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Millwall sit at 1.24 PPG from 54 outings (18W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Millwall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
West Brom's home form reads 16W 6D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Millwall have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.06 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Millwall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Millwall in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Millwall have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Millwall away?
West Brom's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.00 PPG; Millwall away: 1.07 PPG.
Have West Brom or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Millwall in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Millwall won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 0W 5D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Millwall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
West Brom
7
Draws
3
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Millwall?
From 10 meetings on record, West Brom have won 0, Millwall have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when West Brom 0-0 Millwall.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Millwall?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Millwall see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 30%, Millwall 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for West Brom and 33% for Millwall.
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Millwall in 33%; West Brom have failed to score in 26% of games; Millwall in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Millwall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of West Brom's recent matches and 44% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of West Brom's recent games and 33% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 9, as West Brom and Millwall drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.15 xG and Millwall 0.65 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.79 / defence 0.73 against Millwall attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 47% | Draw 32% | Millwall 21%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 46%, Millwall 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Millwall's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.