West Brom 1-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates West Brom at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Derby travel to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
West Brom — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
West Brom at The Hawthorns this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Derby's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: West Brom 1.20 PPG, Derby 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. West Brom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for West Brom, 2 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 51% versus Derby 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 40% | Derby 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.70 xG and Derby 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.053 / defence 0.892 | Derby attack 0.885 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.000. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 89 West Brom games / 43 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 59% | Draw 24% | Derby 17%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Derby 5.88. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: West Brom 60% | Derby 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 59% | Draw 24% | Derby 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG West Brom 1.70 / Derby 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.053 / def 0.892 | Derby attack 0.885 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: West Brom (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Derby xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Derby kick off?
West Brom vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Derby?
West Brom 1 - 3 Derby.
Where is West Brom vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Derby part of?
West Brom vs Derby is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 59% chance of winning, Derby a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both West Brom and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): West Brom 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 2W.
What form are West Brom and Derby in?
West Brom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates West Brom's attack at 1.05x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 89/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.21
17%
5.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.49
0.79
Derby xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.84
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
3%
32.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are West Brom and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for West Brom and 0.79 for Derby, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Brom come into this having played 89 games, going 34W 31D 24L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.52 PPG from 89 outings (39W 18D 32L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.49 PPG, Derby on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Brom's home form reads 24W 13D 7L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.25 points per game from 44 outings (15W 10D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.37 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 89 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Derby in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 34W 31D 24L in their last 89 games (1.49 PPG), while Derby have gone 39W 18D 32L in their last 89 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Derby away?
West Brom's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.93 PPG; Derby away: 1.25 PPG.
Have West Brom or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between West Brom and Derby runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Brom's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
West Brom
2
Draws
4
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Derby?
From 7 meetings on record, West Brom have won 1, Derby have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Derby 0-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 36%, Derby 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (West Brom) and 50% (Derby).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 27% of games; Derby in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of West Brom's recent matches and 50% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of West Brom's recent games and 50% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Derby tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Derby in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over West Brom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat West Brom 1-3 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.70 xG and Derby 0.79 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derby outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Derby attack 0.89 / defence 1.26, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 59% | Draw 24% | Derby 17%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 40%, Derby 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.49 PPG, Derby 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.