Swansea 3-4 Leeds – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Swansea take on Leeds.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Leeds travel to Swansea.com Stadium to take on Swansea. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Swansea — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 5W 3D 2L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Swansea are significantly better at Swansea.com Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leeds stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Leeds have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Leeds — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Swansea's 20% rate and Leeds's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Swansea have won 0, Leeds 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2024, ended 0–4 with Leeds winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Leeds in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 51% versus Leeds 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 48% | Leeds 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.78 xG and Leeds 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.780 / defence 0.750 | Leeds attack 0.975 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.039. Swansea's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Leeds's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Swansea's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Swansea games / 61 Leeds games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 39% | Leeds 30%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.23 | Draw 2.56 | Leeds 3.33. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Leeds's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 20% | Leeds 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Leeds | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 39% | Leeds 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG Swansea 0.78 / Leeds 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.780 / def 0.750 | Leeds attack 0.975 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Leeds xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Leeds kick off?
Swansea vs Leeds kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Leeds?
Swansea 3 - 4 Leeds.
Where is Swansea vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Leeds part of?
Swansea vs Leeds is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 31% chance of winning, Leeds a 30% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Swansea and Leeds will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Leeds?
Record (2 meetings): Swansea 0W | Draws 0 | Leeds 2W.
What form are Swansea and Leeds in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Leeds (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.78) and Leeds's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leeds's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.22
39%
2.57
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.54
0.76
Leeds xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.90
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.5 | 16.3 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.1%.
How many goals are Swansea and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Swansea and 0.76 for Leeds, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 20W 16D 25L from 61 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leeds, meanwhile, have gone 36W 13D 12L across 61 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Leeds by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 11W 8D 11L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leeds's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.74 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Leeds
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Leeds in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 20W 16D 25L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Leeds have gone 36W 13D 12L in their last 61 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Leeds away?
Leeds's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.37 PPG; Leeds away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Swansea or Leeds been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Leeds in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2024, when Leeds won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Leeds specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Swansea
1
Draws
3
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Leeds?
From 4 meetings on record, Swansea have won 0, Leeds have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Leeds last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Leeds 2-2 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Leeds?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 47%, Leeds 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Swansea) and 40% (Leeds).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Leeds in 47%; Swansea have failed to score in 27% of games; Leeds in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Leeds?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Swansea's recent matches and 37% of Leeds's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Leeds usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Swansea's recent games and 40% of Leeds's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Leeds tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Leeds in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leeds defy the odds to beat Swansea 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Swansea 3-4 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.78 xG and Leeds 0.76 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leeds outscored their 0.76 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.78 / defence 0.75 against Leeds attack 0.97 / defence 0.75, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 31% | Draw 39% | Leeds 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Leeds win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 48%, Leeds 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Leeds's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.