Sunderland 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sunderland at 40%, yet in-form QPR provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sunderland vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

QPR make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Championship (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Sunderland have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sunderland have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sunderland are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

QPR's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, QPR have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. QPR are 1.10 PPG clear of Sunderland over their recent games (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sunderland edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Sunderland 3–1 QPR — a Sunderland win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 55% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | QPR 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.17 xG and QPR 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.020 / defence 0.977 | QPR attack 0.831 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.241. Data: built from Sunderland's last 83 games and QPR's last 83.

Result probabilities: Sunderland 40% | Draw 29% | QPR 31%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.53 | Draw 3.43 | QPR 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form QPR (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sunderland's last 10 home games and QPR's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 50% (last 10 home games) | QPR 40% (last 10 away games).

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