Cardiff 0-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 39 sees Sunderland travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cardiff have posted 4W 2D 4L at Cardiff City Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sunderland — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sunderland have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cardiff are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 2, Sunderland 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (84 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (84 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 42% versus Sunderland 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 40% | Sunderland 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.12 xG and Sunderland 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.821 / defence 0.969 | Sunderland attack 0.800 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.205. Data: 84 Cardiff games / 84 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 40% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 30%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Sunderland 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 30% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 40% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Cardiff 1.12 / Sunderland 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.821 / def 0.969 | Sunderland attack 0.800 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sunderland xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Sunderland kick off?
Cardiff vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Cardiff 0 - 2 Sunderland.
Where is Cardiff vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Sunderland part of?
Cardiff vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 40% chance of winning, Sunderland a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cardiff and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sunderland?
Record (3 meetings): Cardiff 2W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Sunderland in?
Cardiff (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Sunderland (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.32
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Sunderland xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.93 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff's recent record stands at 29W 15D 40L from 84 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 32W 20D 32L across 84 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.21 PPG, Sunderland on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 15W 10D 17L from 42 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 14W 11D 17L across 42 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.36 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 84 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 29W 15D 40L in their last 84 games (1.21 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 32W 20D 32L in their last 84 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Sunderland away?
Cardiff's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.31 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sunderland have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cardiff's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cardiff
0
Draws
4
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Sunderland have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Sunderland 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 45%, Sunderland 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cardiff) and 45% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cardiff have failed to score in 29% of games; Sunderland in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cardiff's recent matches and 52% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cardiff's recent games and 45% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Sunderland tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.12 xG and Sunderland 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Sunderland attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 40% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 30%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 40%, Sunderland 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.21 PPG, Sunderland 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.