Hull City 1-2 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Brom have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Hull City, 1.20 for West Brom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hull City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, West Brom in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
West Brom hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. West Brom have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 62% versus West Brom 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 52% | West Brom 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.10 xG and West Brom 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.925 / defence 1.071 | West Brom attack 1.140 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 0.999. Data: 60 Hull City games / 60 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 32% | Draw 31% | West Brom 37%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | West Brom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Hull City 60% | West Brom 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 32% | Draw 31% | West Brom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Hull City 1.10 / West Brom 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.925 / def 1.071 | West Brom attack 1.140 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.329 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: West Brom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.22
West Brom xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs West Brom kick off?
Hull City vs West Brom kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs West Brom?
Hull City 1 - 2 West Brom.
Where is Hull City vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs West Brom part of?
Hull City vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 32% chance of winning, West Brom a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hull City and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and West Brom?
Record (6 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 1 | West Brom 4W.
What form are Hull City and West Brom in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. West Brom (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hull City vs West Brom?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.93) and West Brom's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (1.14x) against Hull City's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
32%
3.16
31%
3.24
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.32
1.22
West Brom xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Hull City and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Hull City and 1.22 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 22W 19D 19L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom's form line: 25W 20D 15L from 60 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Hull City against 1.58 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (9W 13D 8L).
On the road, West Brom have gone 9W 11D 10L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.35 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: West Brom in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and West Brom in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while West Brom have gone 25W 20D 15L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or West Brom away?
Hull City's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.33 PPG; West Brom away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Hull City or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, West Brom in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Brom won 5-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hull City
2
Draws
6
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 2, West Brom have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when West Brom 3-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 60%, West Brom 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 57% (West Brom).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hull City's games and 60% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 57% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and West Brom tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, West Brom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Hull City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Hull City 1-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.10 xG and West Brom 1.22 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against West Brom attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 32% | Draw 31% | West Brom 37%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 52%, West Brom 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.42 PPG, West Brom 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.