Hull City 0-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Blackburn at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 19 as Hull City welcome Blackburn to The MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Hull City are significantly better at The MKM Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Blackburn's 1.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Hull City's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Hull City, 2 for Blackburn and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Hull City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Blackburn trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 60% versus Blackburn 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 51% | Blackburn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.02 xG and Blackburn 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.845 / defence 1.164 | Blackburn attack 0.988 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.051. Data: 64 Hull City games / 63 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 29% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 39%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Blackburn 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | Blackburn 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 29% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Hull City 1.02 / Blackburn 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.845 / def 1.164 | Blackburn attack 0.988 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Blackburn xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Blackburn kick off?
Hull City vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Hull City 0 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Hull City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Blackburn part of?
Hull City vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 29% chance of winning, Blackburn a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hull City and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
Record (6 meetings): Hull City 3W | Draws 1 | Blackburn 2W.
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in?
Hull City (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
29%
3.42
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.23
1.21
Blackburn xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hull City and 1.21 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 19D 22L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.29 PPG from 63 outings (22W 15D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.35 PPG, Blackburn on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 8W 13D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (10W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.29 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Blackburn away?
Hull City's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.19 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 5, Blackburn have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Blackburn 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Blackburn?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 58%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hull City) and 64% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games; Blackburn in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hull City's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hull City's recent games and 64% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Blackburn tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.02 xG and Blackburn 1.21 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Blackburn attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 29% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Blackburn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackburn's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Blackburn 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.