Derby 0-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Sunderland at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sunderland are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sunderland trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Sunderland 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 51% | Sunderland 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.854 / defence 1.162 | Sunderland attack 1.034 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.977. Data: 27 Derby games / 73 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 38%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Sunderland 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 60% | Sunderland 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Derby 1.02 / Sunderland 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.854 / def 1.162 | Sunderland attack 1.034 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.374 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sunderland xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Sunderland kick off?
Derby vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Sunderland?
Derby 0 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Derby vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Sunderland part of?
Derby vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 30% chance of winning, Sunderland a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derby and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Derby and Sunderland in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derby's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
30%
3.31
32%
3.15
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Derby xG
Total xG
2.19
1.17
Sunderland xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Derby and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Derby and 1.17 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 73 games, going 35W 14D 24L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.47 PPG from 73 outings (30W 17D 26L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.63 PPG, Sunderland on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 21W 6D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.22 points per game from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.25 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 35W 14D 24L in their last 73 games (1.63 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 30W 17D 26L in their last 73 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Sunderland away?
Derby's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.92 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Derby or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Sunderland runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Derby
0
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Sunderland have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Derby 0-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Sunderland 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Derby) and 36% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sunderland in 33%; Sunderland in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Derby's recent matches and 44% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Derby's recent games and 36% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Sunderland tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Derby 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.17 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Sunderland attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 27/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 30% | Draw 32% | Sunderland 38%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 51%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.63 PPG, Sunderland 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.