Burnley 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
QPR make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
QPR (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Burnley. A 1.10 PPG lead over QPR (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Burnley lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 57% versus QPR 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 53% | QPR 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.25 xG and QPR 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.862 / defence 0.913 | QPR attack 0.953 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 0.944. Data: 11 Burnley games / 57 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 44% | Draw 33% | QPR 23%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | QPR 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 70% | QPR 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 44% | Draw 33% | QPR 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Burnley 1.25 / QPR 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.862 / def 0.913 | QPR attack 0.953 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.398 / away 0.944 • Poisson stance: Burnley (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.82
QPR xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs QPR kick off?
Burnley vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs QPR?
Burnley 0 - 0 QPR.
Where is Burnley vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs QPR part of?
Burnley vs QPR is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 44% chance of winning, QPR a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Burnley and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and QPR?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 1W.
What form are Burnley and QPR in?
Burnley (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. QPR (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Burnley vs QPR?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.86) and QPR's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.95x) against Burnley's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 11/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
44%
2.25
33%
3.04
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.07
0.82
QPR xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Burnley and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Burnley and 0.82 for QPR, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 11W 13D 25L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 14W 14D 21L from 49 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Burnley against 1.14 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
On the road, QPR have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.04 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and QPR in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 11W 13D 25L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while QPR have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.91 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Burnley
1
Draws
1
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and QPR?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, QPR have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when QPR 0-5 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and QPR?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
QPR see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 56%, QPR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Burnley) and 35% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 30% of games; QPR in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Burnley's recent matches and 44% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Burnley's recent games and 35% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and QPR tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, QPR in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 12, as Burnley and QPR drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.25 xG and QPR 0.82 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.2 short of their projected output. QPR landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against QPR attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 11/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 44% | Draw 33% | QPR 23%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 53%, QPR 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 0.94 PPG, QPR 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.