Burnley vs Preston – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Preston travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 December 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 0W 6D 4L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Preston have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Preston have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burnley at 0.40 PPG versus Preston's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Preston in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Burnley have won 1, Preston 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Preston trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 62% and Preston 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 52% | Preston 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.36 xG and Preston 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.893 / defence 1.152 | Preston attack 0.845 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 4 Burnley games / 50 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 33% | Preston 31%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Preston 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Preston 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 33% | Preston 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Burnley 1.36 / Preston 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.893 / def 1.152 | Preston attack 0.845 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Burnley (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Preston xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Preston kick off?
Burnley vs Preston is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Preston part of?
Burnley vs Preston is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 36% chance of winning, Preston a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burnley and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Preston?
Record (4 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 3 | Preston 0W.
What form are Burnley and Preston in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Preston (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
36%
2.81
33%
3.03
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.63
1.27
Preston xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Burnley and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Burnley and 1.27 for Preston, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 42 games, going 4W 12D 26L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.12 PPG from 42 outings (12W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Preston, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Preston carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 2W 9D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Preston come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.17 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Preston in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Preston
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Preston in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 4W 12D 26L in their last 42 games (0.57 PPG), while Preston have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Preston away?
Preston's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.71 PPG; Preston away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Preston specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Burnley
3
Draws
0
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Preston?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Preston have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Preston 0-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Preston?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Preston 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Burnley) and 52% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 43% of games; Preston in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burnley's recent matches and 62% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Burnley's recent games and 52% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Preston tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Preston in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.