Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Middlesbrough meet at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor.
Middlesbrough (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Burnley against 1.60 for Middlesbrough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Burnley, 0 for Middlesbrough and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 50% versus Middlesbrough 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 46% | Middlesbrough 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.22 xG and Middlesbrough 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.886 / defence 0.712 | Middlesbrough attack 1.675 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.056. Middlesbrough have an above-average attack strength of 1.675 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Burnley's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Burnley games / 64 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 30% | Middlesbrough 36%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Middlesbrough 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Middlesbrough as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 40% | Middlesbrough 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 30% | Middlesbrough 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Burnley 1.22 / Middlesbrough 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.886 / def 0.712 | Middlesbrough attack 1.675 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Middlesbrough xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Burnley vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Burnley 1 - 1 Middlesbrough.
Where is Burnley vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Middlesbrough part of?
Burnley vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 34% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Burnley and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Middlesbrough?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 0 | Middlesbrough 0W.
What form are Burnley and Middlesbrough in?
Burnley (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burnley's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Middlesbrough's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (1.68x) against Burnley's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 18/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
34%
2.92
30%
3.37
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.48
1.26
Middlesbrough xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Burnley and 1.26 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 15D 26L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.68 PPG from 56 outings (28W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Middlesbrough carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Burnley's home form reads 7W 7D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.74 points per game from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Middlesbrough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 28W 10D 18L in their last 56 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Middlesbrough away?
Middlesbrough's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.04 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Burnley
3
Draws
0
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Middlesbrough?
From 5 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Middlesbrough have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Middlesbrough?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Middlesbrough 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Burnley) and 63% (Middlesbrough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Middlesbrough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Burnley's games and 67% of Middlesbrough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Burnley's matches and 63% of Middlesbrough's.
Do Burnley and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Middlesbrough finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.22 xG and Middlesbrough 1.26 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.89 / defence 0.71 against Middlesbrough attack 1.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 18/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 34% | Draw 30% | Middlesbrough 36%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 46%, Middlesbrough 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Middlesbrough arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.