Burnley 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Derby at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 10 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Burnley are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 51% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 46% | Derby 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.36 xG and Derby 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.880 / defence 0.702 | Derby attack 0.850 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.041. Burnley's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 19 Burnley games / 19 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 53% | Draw 31% | Derby 16%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Derby 6.25. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 40% | Derby 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 53% | Draw 31% | Derby 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Burnley 1.36 / Derby 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.880 / def 0.702 | Derby attack 0.850 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Burnley (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Derby xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Derby kick off?
Burnley vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 December 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Derby?
Burnley 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Burnley vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Derby part of?
Burnley vs Derby is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 53% chance of winning, Derby a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Burnley and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Derby in?
Burnley (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Derby (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burnley's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
53%
1.87
31%
3.24
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.98
0.62
Derby xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
4%
24.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 11.7 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Burnley and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Burnley and 0.62 for Derby, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley come into this having played 57 games, going 15W 16D 26L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.74 PPG from 57 outings (29W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burnley's home form reads 7W 8D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.51 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Derby in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 15W 16D 26L in their last 57 games (1.07 PPG), while Derby have gone 29W 12D 16L in their last 57 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.04 PPG; Derby away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Burnley or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Derby in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Derby runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Derby have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2025, when Derby 0-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Derby 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Burnley) and 43% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 32%; Burnley have failed to score in 32% of games; Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 46% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Burnley's recent games and 43% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Derby tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Derby in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 20, as Burnley and Derby drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.36 xG and Derby 0.62 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.88 / defence 0.70 against Derby attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 53% | Draw 31% | Derby 16%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 46%, Derby 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.