Bristol City 0-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Bristol City take on Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Ashton Gate Stadium to face Bristol City in Championship, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Bristol City (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bristol City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bristol City have posted 4W 5D 1L at Ashton Gate Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Bristol City against 1.70 for Burnley. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bristol City 0W, Burnley 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol City 49% versus Burnley 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol City 42% | Burnley 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol City 0.89 xG and Burnley 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol City attack 0.941 / defence 1.045 | Burnley attack 0.853 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.002. Burnley's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Bristol City games / 15 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bristol City 32% | Draw 36% | Burnley 32%. Fair-value odds: Bristol City 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Burnley 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bristol City 60% | Burnley 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol City vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol City 32% | Draw 36% | Burnley 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Bristol City 0.89 / Burnley 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol City attack 0.941 / def 1.045 | Burnley attack 0.853 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Bristol City xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Burnley xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bristol City vs Burnley kick off?
Bristol City vs Burnley kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Ashton Gate Stadium.
What was the final score in Bristol City vs Burnley?
Bristol City 0 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Bristol City vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Ashton Gate Stadium.
What competition is Bristol City vs Burnley part of?
Bristol City vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol City vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Bristol City a 32% chance of winning, Burnley a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bristol City and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Bristol City vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Bristol City 0W | Draws 0 | Burnley 2W.
What form are Bristol City and Burnley in?
Bristol City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Burnley (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bristol City's attack at 0.94x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.85x) against Bristol City's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 61/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.10
36%
2.81
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Bristol City xG
Total xG
1.79
0.89
Burnley xG
3.10
32%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 15.0 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol City vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Bristol City and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Bristol City and 0.89 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol City vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bristol City come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 15D 19L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Bristol City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 0.96 PPG from 53 outings (12W 15D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bristol City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bristol City's home form reads 12W 6D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 0.96 points per game from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bristol City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bristol City are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.11 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol City
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bristol City and Burnley in coming into this match?
Bristol City have gone 19W 15D 19L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while Burnley have gone 12W 15D 26L in their last 53 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol City at home or Burnley away?
Bristol City's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol City at home: 1.62 PPG; Burnley away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bristol City have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Bristol City
0
Draws
4
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Burnley?
From 5 meetings on record, Bristol City have won 1, Burnley have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bristol City and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Burnley 1-2 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Bristol City and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bristol City see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol City 46%, Burnley 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bristol City) and 50% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Bristol City keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bristol City have failed to score in 27% of games; Burnley in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol City home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bristol City play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bristol City's recent matches and 54% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bristol City vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bristol City's recent games and 50% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol City and Burnley tend to score early?
Bristol City have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Burnley in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Bristol City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Bristol City 0-1 at Ashton Gate Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol City 0.89 xG and Burnley 0.89 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bristol City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol City attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Burnley attack 0.85 / defence 0.72, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol City 32% | Draw 36% | Burnley 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol City 42%, Burnley 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol City's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bristol City arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Burnley (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.