Zbrojovka Brno 0-4 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Zbrojovka Brno welcome Slavia Praha to ADAX INVEST Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 outings — a 2.33 PPG return. Last five: D W W. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Zbrojovka Brno carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.63 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.33 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zbrojovka Brno register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Slavia Praha in 70% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Zbrojovka Brno in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 67% and Slavia Praha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zbrojovka Brno 67% | Slavia Praha 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.68 xG and Slavia Praha 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.141 / defence 1.105 | Slavia Praha attack 1.104 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.353. Data: 3 Zbrojovka Brno games / 34 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 39% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 38%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zbrojovka Brno are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 67% | Slavia Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 39% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.68 / Slavia Praha 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.141 / def 1.105 | Slavia Praha attack 1.104 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Slavia Praha xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha?
Zbrojovka Brno 0 - 4 Slavia Praha.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 39% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zbrojovka Brno's attack rating (1.14) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
39%
2.58
24%
4.22
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
3.33
1.65
Slavia Praha xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.65 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Zbrojovka Brno — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 4.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Zbrojovka Brno's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Slavia Praha in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Zbrojovka Brno or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zbrojovka Brno have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Zbrojovka Brno
0
Draws
2
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha?
From 2 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Slavia Praha 2-0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zbrojovka Brno at 67%, Slavia Praha at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Zbrojovka Brno and 100% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 67% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 100% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Zbrojovka Brno.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Zbrojovka Brno 0-4 at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.68 xG and Slavia Praha 1.65 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Zbrojovka Brno fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.14 / defence 1.10 against Slavia Praha attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 39% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 38%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Slavia Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 67%, Slavia Praha 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.33. Form held, and they took the win. Zbrojovka Brno managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.